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Acknowledgements......... v Chapter 1 - WHAT IF WE ARE WRONG?. 1 Two Questions ........... 2 We Are Informed 3 What If Emotion Trumps Truth?.. 4 A Pledge 5
Chapter 2 - Human
Emotions – the Good, How Are You Feeling?......... 10 Maslow and Truth-Driven Thinking......... 11
chapter 3 - The
Profane Word Two Concerns......... 14 Why Responsibility?... 16 CHAPTER 4 - INFORMATION OVERLOAD................. 17 Redefining the Goal......... 18 Critical Thinking?......... 20 Prejudices and Paradigms......... 21 Good and Bad?. 22 Junk Science 23 Another Way To See It 24 Truth-Driven Thinking......... 26
CHAPTER 5 - It’s
“what we know That What Color are Oranges?......... 30 The Amazing Randi. 32 An “Amazing” Conversation..... 34 CHAPTER 6 - A WIDER VIEW...... 53 Sociologist – Dr. Barry Glassner......... 53 Dangerous Messages:......... 59 Mass Psychogenic Illness......... 66 Warren County High School 67 Florida Daycare Center 67 Group Psychology........ 68 Golf League Incident 70 Cockpit Resource Management..... 70 CHAPTER 7 - Fact or Myth?... 72
Do the Rich Pay Their The Profile of a Millionaire......... 74 “Irrational Exuberance” ..... 76 and the “New Economy”......... 76 Spread the Word, O Media Giants! 76 Need Other Examples?........ 77 Irrational Lawsuits?......... 78 Let It Ride.. 79 Athletics......... 80 Casinos and Gambling......... 81 Cults.. 82 Smoking......... 83 CHAPTER 8 - Going to Hell in a Handbasket?.......... 86 Objective Measurements of Progress?......... 88 Stephen Moore’s Economics Data 91 My Own Comparisons.. 114 Costs of Consumer Items 117 A Comment About “Nature”....... 119 On the Other Hand 121 CHAPTER 9 - Roots of Our Fallibility............ 124 The Law of Absence....... 124 The Law of Removal ....... 125 Education Example....... 126 Military Example....... 128 Needs for Self-Affirmation ..... 128 Corollary of Pervasive Negativity....... 130 Larger Society Examples....... 132 The Law of Increasing Knowledge...... 133 The Law of Unintended Consequences. 133
CHAPTER 10 - COMMON ERRORS IN THE Correlation is Not Causation....... 139 Autism....... 140 The Law of Sympathy....... 142 Healthcare...... 143 One Data Point Does Not Make a Trend 145 A pop quiz. 146 A Toxic Trend 158 Percentages vs. Raw Numbers....... 161 Simple “Average” Errors 161 The Underperforming Sales Team 162 CHAPTER 11 - THE HIDDEN COSTS.. 165 Statistical Murder....... 171 A Thought About Voting 173
CHAPTER 12 - SPECIFIC TECHNIQUES FOR The “Reasonable People” Test. 174 Open Your Mind 176 Be True To Yourself....... 176 Beware of the word “Conspiracy”.. 177 Embrace “traditional” critical thinking....... 178
Be Savvy When You Check Your Ego at the Door 180 Balance Cynicism and Trust Carefully........ 182 Read 183 Avail Yourself to Both Sides of the Story....... 184 Tolerance....... 186 Seek “Pro” and “Con” Voices....... 187 Where Do People Get Their Political Information?.... 189 Argue the Other Side. 190
Be Wary of Extreme Predictions –
Gulf War I Predictions About Global 2000 Report to the President....... 192 Be a Skeptic ....... 193 Don’t Smoke! ....... 194 Maintain Some Perspective...... 194 CHAPTER 13 - Perspective & Proportionality 195 The War on Drugs....... 195 A Final Look 197 Perspective 199 |
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